Your imagination continues to be amusing, but alas I don't think this kind of political calculus will remotely come close to occurring.
There were a lot of calculations in my post…
And I might be as surprised as anyone, if what I’ve laid out comes to pass, exactly as I’ve laid it out..!
But you “don’t think this kind of political calculus will come remotely close
Not even remotely..? C’mon… I may not be bang on the money (we’ll see…); but I reckon I’m a bit closer than remote..!
It’s not really calculus so much, as cause and effect.
Maybe you're just putting too much faith into Mr. Corbyn to do that.
I’m not putting *ANY* faith in Mr. Corbyn.
He is a politician; and as such, is as compromised and corrupted by the System he works within, as any other politician.
And I’ve never met him.
What kind of moron would put their faith in someone they’ve never met..?
No… This isn’t about my faith in Jeremy Corbyn.
Best as I can see, this whole situation is Corbyn’s to lose.
The Conservative Party is already a Dead Party Walking.
This whole Brexit shambles is the direct consequence of Tory in-fighting.
That is: a group of no more than about 1,000 senior Conservative Party members and MPs, bickering and feuding about anachronistic notions like “Sovereignty”, and unable to unite their own Party (much less the Nation…), created this whole mess.
The Conservative Party has brought a great deal of shame down on the British. And the British are not going to forgive that any time soon.
It is *ABUNDANTLY* clear that a majority of British people now wish to remain in the E.U. And at the very least, the unavoidably obviousness of that demands a further Referendum.
If everything turns to shit post-Brexit (in whatever manner), and the majority UK population feels the Conservative Party should have (but didn’t) given them the opportunity for another Referendum…
…Theresa May (and more than a few other Tories) could well find themselves being beheaded in front of the Banqueting House. (It’s happened before…)
One way or another, the Conservative Party definitely loses the next General Election (whenever it is held), because the British are *NOT* in a mood to forgive this National Embarrassment.
Conservative Party voters hate whichever other Conservatives are on the opposite side of the Leave/Remain divide to themselves, more than they hate Labour Party voters/members/MPs. A “Remaining” Conservative is more likely to vote for a Labour Party offering a Second Referendum, than vote for a Conservative “Leaver”.
If Theresa May were to win Parliament’s backing for her deal today… It would be a greater shock than the British voting for Brexit, or Americans voting for Trump… But a shock that completely reverses the Populist trends revealed by Brexit/Trump/”Yellow Vests” &c.
So we’ll assume – like everyone else – that Theresa May loses today’s vote.
It will then be very unlikely that Theresa May will not resign.
Not impossible that she won’t resign… Just very unlikely.
It would then be possible that Jeremy Corbyn & Co. do *NOT* table the Motion of No Confidence (in the Conservative Government), but very unlikely that they won’t.
How that No Confidence Motion then plays out in Parliament is where things start to get more unpredictable.
Even rebellious Tories – Rees-Mogg, BoJo, Raab &c – know that the Conservative Party gets creamed in the next election. So they may decide that self-preservation is more important than sticking to their principles; and rally around to defeat the No Confidence Motion…
…And then start jostling to be elected new Leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister of the UK.
But with Brexit still uncertain/undecided/undefined… The British Premiership will be seen as a poisoned chalice… The race to become next leader of the Tory Party may be… A hesitant affair.
But if the Motion of No Confidence *DOES* pass… Then there is a General Election, and Jeremy Corbyn definitely becomes Prime Minister.
And here’s where he could fuck it up.
Corbyn *SHOULD* just say: “Fuck it. When I’m Prime Minister, I’m cancelling this Brexit.”
Not: “The UK will never, ever leave the EU.”
Just: “We are cancelling this specific attempt at Brexit.”
But he can’t say that… Yet.
Because the Labour Party is almost as badly split between “Remainers” and “Leavers”. And the last thing that Corbyn wants whilst the Tories are in disarray, is for the Labour Party to be seen in the same light.
Corbyn and senior Labour Party members aren’t at this stage primarily concerned with what happens (with/to the UK) regarding Brexit: their primary focus is on securing another General Election and getting into Government.
But if/when there is a Corbyn-led Labour Government…
He/they will have to come up with a “Deal” that:
Is sufficiently distinctive from the Tory Party’s proposed deal;
Is acceptable to the EU;
Will never, ever be implemented….
…Because the next step would then be to put the deal to the British Public to accept or reject, along with a third option to cancel Brexit.
And the cancellation of Brexit will win easily.
So that’s where Corbyn & Co. may fuck it up: if they get too bogged down with coming up with a deal that is acceptable to professional politicians in Westminster and Brussels… But will never, ever be implemented, because the British Public will/would cancel Brexit if asked.
If there is a General Election in the next couple of months, it is conceivable that the plebiscite will include the question:
“Should there be a Second Brexit Referendum?”
If that question does get asked of the British Public during a snap General Election, then the Labour Party will become the Government. They won’t waste time coming up with any proposed deals: they will just hold that Second Referendum immediately, in the certain knowledge that the result will be “Remain”.
And then the UK can spend the next two years engaged in ruthless self-examination and self-criticism, over what a National Embarrassment the whole Brexit thing has become.
I couldn’t wish for a better outcome..!!