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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:25 pm 
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This is going on my summer reading list. It's a few years old, but alot of the predictions are coming into view and accelerating due to Trump's election.

This should be right up Holyman's alley (and perhaps a topic for one of his upcoming talks?). It covers all of HM's favorite topics like world order, banking, energy, productivity, demographics......

Here is a current (but longish) review of the book considering recent events.

The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder
https://www.amazon.com/Accidental-Super ... B00P2QB8M6

Quote:
"Always in Motion is the Future" (Review of "The Accidental Superpower")
6/4/2019 | LS
Posted on 6/4/2019, 12:42:09 PM by LS

What follows is a review of Zeihan's 2014 book "The Accidental Superpower." It is both frightening and uplifting, because in his analysis, the US is uniquely positioned to not only survive coming international chaos but to thrive.

Zeihan describes himself as "green and internationalist and libertarian" but says that reality is dictating much different outcomes and that his book is not about what "should" happen, but what will happen. He begins with a review of Egypt and the Ottoman Empire as models for discussing his geographical determinism. In essence, successful powers have very good navigable rivers, easy access to good ports, fertile land, all of which promote unity within the land. Moreover, the US through "the luck of the geopolitical draw" has a high-capital land mass that is "one of the most physically secure regions on the planet."

Right away we have a problem: It wasn't always that way!. Indeed, the original 13 colonies---once you got away from the ports---were vulnerable to the French, Spanish, and a dozen different Indian nations. The Appalachians may have constituted something of a natural barrier, but invasion was always possible by either the French or the Indians from the Northwest, North, and from the Spanish and Indians from the South. Later, after the French and Indian War, young America's borders were easily invaded by the Spanish from the west and south, Canadians and British from the North. (I'm not saying we were invaded, although we were in the war of 1812, but that the borders were certainly less than secure, especially with our standing army of only about 7,000 men.)

So why was America NOT invaded? Because of political theory and the concept of common law, that said law bubbles up from the people to the leaders, and is not dictated down by the leader or a king. This in turn had led to the 2nd Amendment, which in turn was a recognition that EVERY American was already armed and as such constituted America's "walls." (A visitor from Athens to Sparta once asked the Spartan king where were his city's walls: He pointed to the people and said "THESE are Sparta's walls.")

Of course, Zeihan does not look at the Pillars of American exceptionalism except for the fourth one, a "free market economy." But the other three came first: a Christian, mostly Protestant religious tradition (key because it is bottom up in its congregational structure); common law (bottom up); and private property with WRITTEN titles and deeds (ensconced into American law even before the Constitution in the Land Ordinance of 1785).
Laying that aside for a moment, Zeihan then jumps ahead to the end of WW II and the Bretton Woods (BW) agreement, which established the post-war global order.

In a nutshell, BW was notable for what it didn't do: a completely victorious USA did not establish colonies (as the Euros would have, or certainly as the Axis powers would have). Rather, the USA established a global open market system protected by the American navy. In short, we rebuilt our competitors, invited them to compete with us, and protected their shipping on the high seas!

This of course was unheard of in human history. All other victorious powers established colonies. Zeihan says we didn't need them because of BW, that the international trade system basically created an international system of allies and buffer states whom we subsidized. Ok, that's fair. Zeihan notes that 70 years after the inception of BW, only 11% of U.S. GDP comes from exports (2014).

Here is Zeihan's key: "the Americans are no longer gaining a strategic benefit from that network, even as the economic cost continues . . . . Americans are going to re-prioritize . . . ."

At points, Zeihan is brilliant. He notes that from 1994-2002, "real money was flowing into---instead of out from---the United States," giving the country "its lowest inflation rates since the 1960s." That's dubious. I think there were periods under Reagan where the inflation rate was extremely low, so it probably depends on your overall timeline. He correctly notes that former Soviet money was now flowing into the USA, but fails to note that the opening of Ukraine, the Baltic Republics, the Stans, and Russia itself was a bonanza for Americans selling products there.
But this is an important key: whereas Zeihan attributes virtually all of the financial stability and low prices until the 2007 mortgage crash to capital imports---despite continually rising national debt, which should have triggered inflation---I think he misses an even bigger factor, namely the "computerization" of the US and the west. As computers truly seeped into every aspect of economic life in the west, a profound productivity revolution occurred---one that to this day has not been adequately monetized.

Think of it this way. Prior to the late 1970s, the productivity gain of a rotary dial telephone was measured mostly by price. One rotary phone was hardly better than another. In that case, it's easy to fix a monetary value on productivity gains for phones. Enter the Smart Phone. Now you don't just have a phone, but a computer, a mail system, a game box, a GPS, and so on and son on. In short, it's nothing whatsoever like a "phone." How is all that value measured? It really isn't. The value increase, or productivity increase, of a phone is just accounted for as a Smart Phone over a rotary dial. This left a massive, massive gap in productivity measurements, and the money that flowed into the US was more than absorbed by these in every industry. BUT . . . Zeihan's overall point, that the US was relatively speaking not even dinged by the 2000-era computer retrenchment, is valid no matter whose theory accounts for it.

Zeihan then moves to demographics. You know, the "demographics is destiny" crowd that see America losing this game? Well, not quite. "Economically, global trade is predicated on the ability to sell into growing markets. In the post-World War II era it has been the American market that has been far and away the largest . . . ." However, chronic aging in Europe and the rest of the world and even China means that "the American Market will be the largest one in the world, but that aging demographics will have capped---and in most cases reversed---consumer market growth in Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, Italy, Canada, Spain, Russia, Korea, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, South Africa, Austria, Greece, Norway, Denmark, Portugal, and Finland." If they are not major consumers of US goods, the US will have little interest in these states. He then argues, correctly I think that "as early as 2030 the United States will emerge as the only country that is capital-rich, the only country with a growing economy, and the only country with a growing market."

Next, Zeihan adds another major factor to the US side of the mix, energy. He shows how shale will be "the" energy of the future and that ONLY the US has the ability to take advantage of shale. "But what is most disruptive," he argues, "is the timing. The Americans are backing away from BW, the global demographic is inverting, and shale is paring back the single most energetic American connection to the wider world all at the same time."
Here comes the frightening part: Zeihan sees the global financial wave crest sometime between 2020 and 2024, when 13 of the world's top 25 economies will be in the ranks of the financially distressed" including Canada, Germany, Holland, South Korea, the UK, and Switzerland. Interest and mortgage rates will climb into the teens in the developed world and higher in the developing world, consumption will plunge, while older people will increase government outlays on health care and pensions. The pace of technological change, he argues (because it is driven by younger people and capital) will come to a halt. At that point, only lower-cost producers will have a relatively secure place in the market, with the exception of energy supplied from shale in the US.

American previous guarantees of backing BW, but now pulling back, will trigger economic and energy crises for Europe, East Asia, and South Asia. And, he conclude, "that is the positive scenario." Only Norway is self-sufficient in oil, and of the 20+ Middle Eastern countries---including Israel! not one is even remotely self-sufficient in foodstuffs. Venezuela, Columbia, Singapore, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Cuba, Iraq, Japan, and South Korea all must import a whopping 2/3 of their grain needs.

Zeihan's point is that once BW starts to collapse, and the US moves inward, we will not be extending security to all these nations as we once did. And when it comes to food, the REAL "green revolution" in Africa and the Middle East was almost entirely bought and paid for by American capital---which involved making vast regions of relatively unproductive land somewhat productive. When the US capital retreats, the entire "green" revolution is shaky.

Believe it or not, the US is actually demographically younger than Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, England, Russia, Spain, and Poland, and by 2020 will be younger than . . . CHINA. The US market will thus continue to grow yearly as these nations collapse. Only America has prime lands available for improving, plus we have---remember?---cheap power. As of 2014, US GDP only spent 14% on imports of which 5% was energy. Another third is spent on Canada/Mexico trade, which we can control. That means that REAL US imports from overseas are only 5% and shrinking. "Disengagement will be the rule of the day," Zeihan predicts. "Trade links will whither." And that's good for America, with its interior linkage, its vast energy, its relative youth, and its astounding capital base, means that "Americans will actually be fairly comfortable compared to everyone else."

Remember, this was written in 2014, BT (Before Trump). Trump is politically riding a wave that VERY FEW others saw (Zeihan saw it) without ever needlessly discussing the demographic and historical causes of this wave. Trump asks not why the oceans produce the waves, he asks only, "how soon can we get on it?" In terms of tariffs, Trump has given a teetering China a push. With Mexico, he has given Mexico a chance at survival, but at the cost of enforcing its own southern border and spending dear capital to help secure its northern border.
Neither has a choice whether to help Trump and the U.S. It's only about the size of the final bill. And in each case, Trump has squeezed another 5-7 years of prosperity out of the only system in the world that is set up to ride out the coming collapse.

Zeihan has a number of other observations about this coming collapse, including predictions that Germany, Japan, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Turkey and Angola will all become "aggressive powers," and of that lot, the most dangerous is Germany. Lacking secure borders and theoretically open to invasion from at least four sides (Russia is vulnerable from SIX directions!), Germany will face an energy problem in that its nearest accessible energy sites are 2,000 miles away in foreign hands. "Without the Americans, Germany's economic crisis quickly escalates to a European-wide strategic crisis." In this crisis, "Germany will not lie down and die."

Zeihan then finally addresses China, which he sees as verging on collapse. There is the demographic problem, and its financial system subsidizes prices for finished outputs that drives down the price of Chinese finished goods and leads their exports to displace competition. This has been responsible for Chinese growth in recent decades of 9%--but this was illusory. By 2007, Chinese lending topped $600b, or more than all US lending at the peak of the subprime bubble, despite the fact the Chinese economy is less than ONE-THIRD the size of the US economy. When the bubble burst, Chinese companies borrowed even more. Thus China's total financing is about $5 trillion in an economy worth only $8 trillion--- a level seven times that of the US, the equivalent of the Obama porkulus every 29 days!! As Zeihan puts it, "the entire Chinese system is subprime, in every economic sector."

By 2030 the Chinese will average 42 years old while the US will only average 39. Unable to move away from its current export-driven model, and having run out of surplus labor, the Chinese are going to find themselves out of young workers AND consumers. NO policy the Chinese can design will result in the needed doubling of births in the next 20 years.
Further, the Chinese---despite fear-mongering---do not have a blue water navy and is hemmed in by Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and all sorts of other powers with long-range aircraft. Zeihan predicts "everything from Hainan Island to Shanghai will become a series of unaffiliated city-sttes that hitch their wagons to American, Japanese, Taiwanese, Koreian, Australian, and even Singaporean stars." Production is "likely to relocate back to the United States itself".

But ask Luo Ping, director of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, who in 2009 said "Except for U.S. Treasuries, what can you hold? Gold? You don't hold Japanese bonds or UK bonds.U.S. Treasuries are the safe haven. For everyone, including China, it is the only option . . . . there is nothing much we can do."

Zeihan concludes with, "The world is going to hell, but the Americans are going to sit this one out." Demographically and in terms of capital, he's right. But I think it is likely to be even better than that. Elections have consequences. An election Zeihan didn't predict has had enormous consequences, pushing up U.S. output and government revenues, accelerating American innovation and investment far more than his trajectories would have predicted in 2014.

This leaves only one last issue: immigration. Zeihan thinks, mistakenly, the answer is open immigration. Quite the contrary---and Trump has this exactly right---we not only can, but must stop the southern invasion and, yes, we can do it with a combination of the Wall, e-verify, active deportation, taxation of remittances, and other means.

If we win this war---and it is war---and Zeihan's other predictions come true, the U.S. will in fact surpass even the "golden accident" that left the U.S. as the only superpower from 1946-1960. Trump was the wild card, the supercharger to this already good prognosis, and our enemies foreign and domestic know it.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:32 pm 
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Are you sure you're not the author Foota?

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:51 pm 
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The Next Generation of American Preeminence

U=B} U=B} U=B} U=B} U=B}


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:52 pm 
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The Self-Destruction of American Power

Sometime in the last two years, American hegemony died. The age of U.S. dominance was a brief, heady era, about three decades marked by two moments, each a breakdown of sorts. It was born amid the collapse of the Berlin Wall, in 1989. The end, or really the beginning of the end, was another collapse, that of Iraq in 2003, and the slow unraveling since. But was the death of the United States’ extraordinary status a result of external causes, or did Washington accelerate its own demise through bad habits and bad behavior? That is a question that will be debated by historians for years to come. But at this point, we have enough time and perspective to make some preliminary observations.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... ican-power


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:51 pm 
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PBFMullethunter wrote:
The Self-Destruction of American Power

Sometime in the last two years, American hegemony died. The age of U.S. dominance was a brief, heady era, about three decades marked by two moments, each a breakdown of sorts. It was born amid the collapse of the Berlin Wall, in 1989. The end, or really the beginning of the end, was another collapse, that of Iraq in 2003, and the slow unraveling since. But was the death of the United States’ extraordinary status a result of external causes, or did Washington accelerate its own demise through bad habits and bad behavior? That is a question that will be debated by historians for years to come. But at this point, we have enough time and perspective to make some preliminary observations.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... ican-power


Fareed! When he is not caught plagiarizing, he is vomiting out the same conventional wisdom spouted by the International Left and US Democrats for years. Basically an Indian version of Tom Friedman writing the same column over and over. Not a single mention of Obama in his piece BTW. As if pulling out of Iraq letting ISIS bloom, toppling Libya, declaring (and not enforcing) red-lines in Syria, enabling Iran, allowing Russia gobble up Crimea/Ukraine and doing nothing about North Korea and Chinese theft of IP had no impact on the world and America's standing?

Anyway, his closing paragraph makes it sound pretty clear the "free world" America helped create is fucked if America is fucked.

Quote:
But the free world persisted through the Cold War, and after 1991, it expanded to encompass much of the globe. The ideas behind it have produced stability and prosperity over the last three-quarters of a century. The question now is whether, as American power wanes, the international system it sponsored—the rules, norms, and values—will survive. Or will America also watch the decline of its empire of ideas?


This is what is so poignant about the analysis that I posted. America has the unique capability of turning inward with our massive agricultural resources, energy supplies, capital, young population of consumers to ride out the coming storm.


Last edited by Foota on Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:53 pm 
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Slacks wrote:
Are you sure you're not the author Foota?


I don't have the patience to bang out a Holyman length piece like that.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:05 pm 
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Foota wrote:
I don't have the patience to bang out a Holyman length


Sounds painful

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:09 pm 
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Slacks wrote:
Foota wrote:
I don't have the patience to bang out a Holyman length


Sounds painful


too far dude


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:14 pm 
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PBFMullethunter wrote:
Slacks wrote:
Foota wrote:
I don't have the patience to bang out a Holyman length


Sounds painful


too far dude


Homophobic comment during Pride Month to boot!


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:38 pm 
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Foota wrote:
PBFMullethunter wrote:
Slacks wrote:

Sounds painful


too far dude


Homophobic comment during Pride Month to boot!


Swallow it dude.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:30 am 
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barcelona wrote:
Foota wrote:
PBFMullethunter wrote:

too far dude


Homophobic comment during Pride Month to boot!


Swallow it dude.


You know you are the only dude here that chugged cock with your gay tongue ring.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:45 am 
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Foota wrote:
barcelona wrote:
Foota wrote:

Homophobic comment during Pride Month to boot!


Swallow it dude.


You know you are the only dude here that chugged cock with your gay tongue ring.



Nope I thought you 'chugged cock' like a pro.. I'm only a beginner.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:50 am 
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a lot of cockchuggery going on here


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:02 am 
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PBFMullethunter wrote:
a lot of cockchuggery going on here



Foota prefers it that way.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:14 am 
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How much cock could a cockchug chug if a cockchug could chug cock?


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:17 am 
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PBFMullethunter wrote:
How much cock could a cockchug chug if a cockchug could chug cock?



Foota knows the answer.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:34 am 
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It's no coincidence that a thread about the American Superpower has turned into a thread about chugging cock.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:09 pm 
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Difficult to know where to start with all this…

Look, Foota, I’m really sorry to have to be the one to tell you this, but…

It *IS* over.

The United States no longer occupies the position in World Affairs it once did.

*EVERYTHING* I’ve been predicting/warning you about all these years, has now come to pass.

The Era of Anglo-American Domination of the World is over.

Now, I know you will struggle to believe this, because it is *NOT* something that you are hearing through your regular, dependable News sources. (And also because you think such an outcome is impossible, so therefore cannot possibly be True…)

But trust me on this one: I was right and you were wrong.

Now, I could go on at length about the utter bankruptcy of USAmerican Foreign Policy, the fact that 21st Century U.S. Citizens are basically the “Marks” in a long and on-going criminal fraud and this is now slowly becoming apparent to them (it’s been apparent to the Rest of the World for a while now…), and of course, that the U.S. is only months away from the complete and total bankruptcy that must now inevitably follow the end of the Petrodollar System.

But why bother..?

…When the magazine, “Foreign Affairs”, *THE* published organ of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, has already done a far more comprehensive (and better sourced) job.

Seriously Foota: if it is in “Foreign Affairs”, then the Results truly *ARE* in.

And look, I know this is going to take some adjusting to, but please try. There are still some old British men, living what remains of their stipendiary existences, who *STILL* refuse to accept that the British Empire is defunct, and the UK at best, a Second-Rate Power.

You really *DON’T* want to become one of those.

As for the review of the book that you opened this thread with goes… Well, it’s unusual to review a review (without at least first viewing what is being reviewed), but frankly, looking at it, if it is anywhere nearly accurate about what is contained in the book… I’m unlikely to give it 5/5, even if I did read it.

The review is based primarily on Wishful Thinking; but also on a rather out-of-date understanding of Modern Human Priorities.

With the notable exception of the United States, 21st Century Societies have moved beyond the idea of invasion and military attack. It’s too expensive, too unpredictable, way too messy, and there’s little or no appetite for it with most polities.

So the United States’ geographic defensibility doesn’t really enter into it (particularly since geography doesn’t really bother ICBM’s…).

The whole nonsense about the U.S. winning the “Demographic Race”, is similarly misconceived.

The idea that the 7.2 billion human beings on the Planet who are *NOT* USAmerican, will buy less (than youthful Americans) as they “chronically” age, is startlingly naïve.

As is the idea that USAmerica’s Shale-Oil deposits are going to be its Golden Ticket – just as the Rest of the World is Awake to the danger of further oil consumption.

I mean… If I’ve got to choose between what looks (by the review) to be an exercise in Wishful Patriotic Thinking, written by a sophomore; or the considerably more realistic set of articles published in the United States’ premier Foreign Policy publication…

Well… It’s not going to take me long to decide.

>&8~

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:36 pm 
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Holyman wrote:

But trust me on this one: I was right and you were wrong.

>&8~


Ookay.

Since we first met here (holy shit 15 years ago now??) you have been predicting the imminent doom of America. Not just doom, but dystopian cataclysmic doom! Now you say we are just a few months from total bankruptcy. Like a crazy dude with a board sign ringing a bell yelling repent in Times Square! : )

Yet here we are, economically stronger then ever with more energy resources than we could ever dream of. Compared to the clown show of Brexit and EU (let alone the history of the 20th century) America is remarkably stable politically and economically.

You may say "The World" is moving on from carbon based energy, but even Germany's ambitious goals are 20+ years away. China and India are still building new coal power plants. Alot can happen in 2 decades. Meanwhile, Germany is increasing their carbon emissions by burning dirty coal, Russian/OPEC oil and even burning trees! While America is reducing our carbon emissions despite a growing economy using cleaner natural gas which is a wonderful bridge energy while we continue to perfect solar and battery technology.

I don't disagree that the "World Order" is due for a breakup. All I am saying that America is uniquely blessed with amazing resources, geography, agriculture, demographics and culture to weather the coming storms. What other country on the planet has literally 100,000+ people trying to sneak into it every month?

It won't be pretty, but America *CAN* ignore the rest of the world and turn inward. The rest of the world can't.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:20 pm 
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Foota wrote:
Holyman wrote:
But trust me on this one: I was right and you were wrong.


Ookay.

Since we first met here (holy shit 15 years ago now??) you have been predicting the imminent doom of America. Not just doom, but dystopian cataclysmic doom! Now you say we are just a few months from total bankruptcy. Like a crazy dude with a board sign ringing a bell yelling repent in Times Square! : )


I know, right! 15 years..! That went quick..!

Thing is… The U.S. is already basically insolvent; its bankruptcy occurred after the 2008 Banking Crash, when instead of Nationalising the Banks that have done so much to wreck the foundations of U.S. Economic Power, the U.S. Government just handed over trillions of dollars to those private banks, to stop them going broke. And hoped that the majority of Americans wouldn’t notice: which they didn’t.

Now with the Germans pushing the first viable alternative to SWIFT, the U.S.’s Dollar-denominated Chickens are going to come home to roost.

As for how the population of the United States will react to mass unemployment and an even more unaffordable Cost of Living… Well… You live there, you know Americans better than me, how do *YOU* think your fellow Citizens are going to react to the realisation that they have been royally stiffed?

Foota wrote:
Yet here we are, economically stronger then ever with more energy resources than we could ever dream of. Compared to the clown show of Brexit and EU (let alone the history of the 20th century) America is remarkably stable politically and economically.


But here’s the Thing Foota: “You” are *NOT* economically stronger than ever.

Image

The U.S. just hit $22.22 trillion in National Debt.

Then there’s the fact that the majority of Americans are earning less than they did a half-century ago:

Image

And the fact that Income Inequality in the U.S. is now back at pre-Wall Street Crash/Great Depression levels:

Image

And you might start to wonder just how much forgiveness and understanding your Fellow Americans will have for the U.S. Government and Assorted Cronies, when the Whole Shit-Show is laid bare.

Foota wrote:
You may say "The World" is moving on from carbon based energy, but even Germany's ambitious goals are 20+ years away. China and India are still building new coal power plants. Alot can happen in 2 decades. Meanwhile, Germany is increasing their carbon emissions by burning dirty coal, Russian/OPEC oil and even burning trees! While America is reducing our carbon emissions despite a growing economy using cleaner natural gas which is a wonderful bridge energy while we continue to perfect solar and battery technology.


Main reason that the U.S. has been able to (slightly) reduce its CO2 Emissions…

Image

…Is because it has effectively de-industrialised by outsourcing its Manufacturing Base to Asia.

But more pertinently: the Whole World *IS* turning its back on fossil fuels (albeit, perhaps a little late in the day), and so basing your Nation’s future economic prosperity on its ability to continue selling expensive-to-extract-and-refine tar oil, and then shipping it across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, is… A little short-sighted.

Anyhoo… That’s all By-the-By.

Fact of the Matter is that in the space of Time that you and I have been arguing, the United States has gone from being the Uni-Power Authority on the Planet, to its biggest Laughing Stock (with the UK in second place).



Reminds me of the line from Blackadder the Third, where Baldrick is talking about having applied for the post of Village Idiot in a nearby village:

BALDRICK: “I got down to the last two, but I failed the final interview.”

BLACKADDER: “Oh. How?”

BALDRICK: “I turned up.”



Foota wrote:
I don't disagree that the "World Order" is due for a breakup. All I am saying that America is uniquely blessed with amazing resources, geography, agriculture, demographics and culture to weather the coming storms. What other country on the planet has literally 100,000+ people trying to sneak into it every month?


Not sure that the number of people trying to sneak into your Nation is a reliable measure of its success. Think you would have to clarify it by detailing *WHERE* those 100,000+ people are trying to sneak in *FROM*.

Canada? Western Europe? China? Japan?

Or from those Latin American Nations that the U.S. has been doing so much to bully and impoverish for the last Century.

I know full well how shitty Life is in the United States right now, for the average American. But if I lived in Honduras, Guatemala or Mexico, I’d sure as shit be trying to sneak in.

Wouldn’t you?

Anyhoo…

It’s not that the “World Order” is *DUE* a break-up: it is that the break-up is taking place *RIGHT NOW*.

The People’s (Communist) Republic of China is now the dominant Economic Power on our Planet.

Foota wrote:
It won't be pretty, but America *CAN* ignore the rest of the world and turn inward. The rest of the world can't.


Not sure what figures you are looking at Foota, but those I get from the U.S. Department of Commerce tell a very different story:

Image

Can you provide more detail on your assertion that the U.S. can ignore the Rest of the World; but that the Rest of the World can’t do without the U.S?

:!!

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"To be hopeful in bad times is not just foolishly romantic. It is based on the fact that human history is a history not only of cruelty, but also of compassion, sacrifice, courage, kindness. What we choose to emphasize in this complex history will determine our lives. If we see only the worst, it destroys our capacity to do something. If we remember those times and places—and there are so many—where people have behaved magnificently, this gives us the energy to act, and at least the possibility of sending this spinning top of a world in a different direction. And if we do act, in however small a way, we don’t have to wait for some grand utopian future. The future is an infinite succession of presents, and to live now as we think human beings should live, in defiance of all that is bad around us, is itself a marvellous victory." - Howard Zinn


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:35 pm 
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Foota wrote:
barcelona wrote:
Foota wrote:

Homophobic comment during Pride Month to boot!


Swallow it dude.


You know you are the only dude here that chugged cock with your gay tongue ring.



I thought Aggie, or someone confessed to being a bisexual swinger or something, remember to shock us.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:51 pm 
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Holyman wrote:

Can you provide more detail on your assertion that the U.S. can ignore the Rest of the World; but that the Rest of the World can’t do without the U.S?

:!!


We have the basic fundamentals to sustain life and civilization:

- America is the top agricultural food exporter in the world.
- America is the world's largest energy producer in the world.

China can't feed or provide energy to its population without relying on massive imports for food and energy from other countries. And that challenge is only going to get harder as they try to get over 1 billion of their people still living in peasant conditions up to 2nd and 1st world living conditions that you and I take for granted. So I don't see them tripping over themselves to go with more expensive and less efficient green energy any time in the near or distant future.

Look at what happened in the Gulf of Oman this morning. What do you think would happen if America decided we were no longer going to provide security to all the world's shipping lanes and only protect US flagged ships? Shit would go south really fast. We would see food shortages and a MASSIVE increase in the cost of energy.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:56 pm 
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Every morning when I get out of bed, I make sure to bow south and thank Uncle Sam for granting me one more day.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:01 pm 
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PBFMullethunter wrote:
Every morning when I get out of bed, I make sure to bow south and thank Uncle Sam for granting me one more day.


Yer welcome!

We'll probably bring you all along for the ride once you get rid of President Zoolander.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:51 pm 
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Foota wrote:
Holyman wrote:

Can you provide more detail on your assertion that the U.S. can ignore the Rest of the World; but that the Rest of the World can’t do without the U.S?

:!!


We have the basic fundamentals to sustain life and civilization:

- America is the top agricultural food exporter in the world.
- America is the world's largest energy producer in the world.

China can't feed or provide energy to its population without relying on massive imports for food and energy from other countries. And that challenge is only going to get harder as they try to get over 1 billion of their people still living in peasant conditions up to 2nd and 1st world living conditions that you and I take for granted. So I don't see them tripping over themselves to go with more expensive and less efficient green energy any time in the near or distant future.

Look at what happened in the Gulf of Oman this morning. What do you think would happen if America decided we were no longer going to provide security to all the world's shipping lanes and only protect US flagged ships? Shit would go south really fast. We would see food shortages and a MASSIVE increase in the cost of energy.


It kinda sounds like you're saying that if the world experienced an absolutely catastrophic collapse of everything ever, America would be alright because it has the means to produce stuff for itself. Which may be true, but I don't think we are looking at the downfall of civilisation anytime soon. Major shifts certainly, but no zombie apocalypse either.

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